For the first time in years, Russian President Wladimir Putin finds himself facing an uncomfortable truth: his once-ironclad popularity is slipping. According to data from the state-run polling agency VTsIOM, Putin's approval ratings have fallen for seven consecutive weeks. This is a rare and significant development, as the Kremlin has long relied on carefully managed poll numbers to project stability and unity. The sustained decline became so embarrassing to the regime that after April 24, 2025, VTsIOM abruptly stopped publishing the figures, citing no official explanation.

The move has raised eyebrows among political analysts and Kremlin watchers. In Russia, public opinion data is tightly controlled, and any deviation from the desired narrative is often suppressed. The decision to halt publication suggests that the decline was not a temporary blip but a trend that could have serious political consequences. Experts are now asking whether this could be the trigger for an internal power struggle within the ruling elite.

Historical Context: Putin's Popularity Rollercoaster

Putin's popularity has historically been sky-high, buoyed by strong economic growth in the 2000s and later by the annexation of Crimea in 2014, which sparked a wave of nationalist sentiment. His approval rating once peaked at nearly 90%. However, the situation began to change after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. While initial polls showed a rally-around-the-flag effect, the prolonged war, mounting casualties, economic sanctions, and the partial mobilization in September 2022 took a toll. By 2023, ratings had started to slide, though the Kremlin tried to counter with patriotic propaganda and crackdowns on dissent.

The current seven-week decline is unprecedented in peacetime (or what Russia calls a "special military operation"). It indicates that even the core base of support might be wavering. Factors contributing to this include rising inflation, shortages of consumer goods, growing war fatigue, and the government's inability to deliver on social promises. Furthermore, the recent terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in March 2025, which killed over 140 people, exposed security failures and sparked public anger, which some directed at the authorities.

The VTsIOM Data Blackout

VTsIOM (the Russian Public Opinion Research Center) is a state-owned institution that conducts regular polls. Its weekly rating of trust in Putin is one of the most closely watched indicators in Russia. When the agency stopped publishing on April 25 without any announcement, it was a clear signal that the numbers were too damaging. Independent pollsters have been largely silenced or labeled "foreign agents," so VTsIOM's data is one of the few sources available. The blackout has created a vacuum, leading to speculation that the real numbers might be even worse than the published ones.

The Kremlin tries to control the narrative by claiming that the people stand firmly behind Putin. But if the official polls show decline, the regime has a dilemma: either continue publishing and risk emboldening opponents, or stop and admit that something is wrong. They chose the latter. This move is reminiscent of the Soviet era, when economic data was routinely falsified or kept secret. However, in the information age, the blackout itself becomes a story.

Internal Power Dynamics: Is a Struggle Brewing?

The question now is what this means for the power structure inside the Kremlin. Putin has been the undisputed leader for over two decades, but cracks have appeared before. The Wagner Group mutiny in June 2023, led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, showed that some in the elite were willing to challenge Putin, albeit in a chaotic manner. Since Prigozhin's death in a plane crash later that year, the situation seemed calm, but underlying tensions remain.

A declining popularity rating can be a trigger because it weakens Putin's authority. In a system built on loyalty and fear, any sign of vulnerability can encourage rivals to maneuver for position. The so-called "siloviki" (security officials) and the various factions within the government—the technocrats, the military, the FSB, and the economic lobby—may see an opportunity. Particularly as Putin approaches an election (or continues to postpone it), the succession question looms large. If the leader appears weak, those around him may start to hedge their bets or even plot a transition.

According to a widely cited analysis by the political consultancy "R.Politik," the Kremlin is facing a "legitimacy crisis" not seen since the 1990s. The regime relies on a mix of repression and performance legitimacy (delivering stability and prosperity). When performance falters, repression must increase—but that risks further alienating the public. The recent arrest of several high-ranking officials on corruption charges might be a sign of infighting or a bid to appease the public. However, it also reflects a system where everyone is vulnerable except the top leader.

The War in Ukraine and Economic Strain

War fatigue is arguably the biggest driver of Putin's declining popularity. Russia's economy is on a war footing, with military spending consuming a massive share of GDP. While oil and gas revenues are still flowing, the impact of Western sanctions is cumulative. Ordinary Russians now face inflation, higher interest rates, and a shortage of imported goods. The labor market is tight due to mobilization and emigration, but wages are not keeping up. Moreover, the human cost of the war is hidden: casualty figures are classified, but Western estimates suggest hundreds of thousands of dead or wounded.

In many Russian cities, there has been a quiet but growing discontent. Mothers and wives of soldiers have begun to protest, demanding the return of their loved ones from the front. While these protests are small and heavily policed, they receive attention on social media. The Kremlin has tried to counter with propaganda about "historical Russian lands" and victory, but the slogans are wearing thin. The longer the war drags on, the more the public questions the leadership's competence.

Putin's response so far has been to double down. He has not addressed the polling slump directly, instead delivering speeches about Russia's resilience and blaming external enemies. But even his most loyal propagandists, like state TV hosts, have started to hint at problems. For example, during one broadcast, a host noted that "the people must be patient"—a phrase that can be interpreted as a recognition of hardship.

What Could Happen Next?

If the trend continues, Putin may face the need to reshuffle his inner circle or offer a scapegoat to appease public anger. Alternatively, he could escalate the war further—what some call a "rally around the flag" strategy—by launching a large-scale offensive or even declaring a new wave of mobilization (which is risky politically). A third option is to introduce more repressive measures, stifling dissent even further. None of these options guarantee a recovery in popularity.

The fact that VTsIOM stopped publication indicates that the Kremlin is aware of the danger and is trying to manage expectations. But in a tightly controlled information environment, every data point has outsized importance. The silence itself is a data point. Political analyst Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin speechwriter, recently argued that the regime's legitimacy rests on the perception of invincibility. Once that is dented, the entire system can unravel quickly. He warned that a "power struggle is not only possible but likely" if Putin appears vulnerable.

Others are more cautious, noting that Putin still controls the security forces and has eliminated many rivals. However, history shows that authoritarian leaders often fall when their support base among the elite erodes. The end of the Soviet Union, for instance, came not from popular revolt but from party and military elites abandoning Gorbachev. While Russia is not the USSR, the dynamics of elite loyalty remain crucial.

The next few months will be telling. If the poll numbers return to publication and show a recovery, the crisis may be averted. But if the blackout continues, or if more independent sources confirm a deeper decline, then the question of a power struggle within the Kremlin will move from speculation to reality. The trigger has been pulled: a sustained drop in popularity has created a vulnerability. Now the Russian political system must cope with a leader whose aura of invincibility has been cracked.

As former Moscow mayor and Putin insider Sergei Sobyanin once remarked in a leaked conversation, "Power in Russia is a game of nerves." Right now, the nerves are frayed. The halt in polling data is more than a statistical anomaly—it is a sign that the Kremlin is nervous. And nervous autocracies often do unpredictable things.

Source: Tagesspiegel News